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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.