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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."